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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."