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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.